Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $117.13
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $998.4
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$37.7
Polymarket Trader
0x992582b6e2b75b1cb17fcb150e912b9a402bbaa3
0x992582b6e2b75b1cb17fcb150e912b9a402bbaa3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $876.03
- Realized PnL
- $755.47
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $343.75
- Potential profit
- $343.75
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.1%
- Current value
- $154.4
- Potential payout
- $195.32
- Potential profit
- $40.92
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $9.73
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $116.17
- Potential payout
- $120.76
- Potential profit
- $4.59
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $6.15
No position
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $100
- Potential payout
- $105.82
- Potential profit
- $5.82
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $88.56
- Potential payout
- $90.41
- Potential profit
- $1.85
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $77.93
- Potential payout
- $83.34
- Potential profit
- $5.42
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.93
No position
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $72.09
- Potential payout
- $75.92
- Potential profit
- $3.83
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.47
No position
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $72.52
- Potential payout
- $75.66
- Potential profit
- $3.14
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.52
Yes position
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $56.67
- Potential profit
- $56.47
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.28
- Potential profit
- $51.28
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $36.36
- Potential payout
- $43.55
- Potential profit
- $7.19
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.96
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $16.84
- Potential payout
- $30.61
- Potential profit
- $13.78
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- $1.84
No position
EU dissolves before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $11.29
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $6.54
- Potential payout
- $8.44
- Potential profit
- $1.9
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $5.67
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $4.35
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.53
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- User PnL
- -$0.53
No position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.11
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.21
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.37
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.63
No position
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.72
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.41
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.57
Yes position
Trump's January 10 sentencing pushed back?
Ends Jan 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.57
No position
Assad public appearance before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.71
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.3
Yes position
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.08
No position
Iranian coup attempt before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.64
Yes position
Trump announces cutting all military aid to Ukraine aid before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.56
No position
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.33
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?
Ends Jul 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.05
Yes position
Trump reinstates Mexico City policy on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.21
No position
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.15
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21
No position
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.62
No position
Mahamat Déby out as President of Chad in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.29
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.35
No position
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.89
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.54
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.47
No position
Iranian coup attempt before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.82
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Yes 70% 8.44 shares
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes 49% 30.61 shares
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No 97.2% 38.32 shares
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No 96.6% 51.77 shares
- Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?No 95% 52.63 shares
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?No 94% 53.19 shares
- Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?No 93.6% 53.43 shares
- U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?No 93.6% 53.43 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 84.1% 59.45 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 12% 416.67 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 15% 698.87 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.6% 343.75 shares