No position
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$7
Polymarket Trader
MoralOrel
0x99505cc39faac342b4d3bfa0659a0626670b6d78
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $331.49
- Realized PnL
- $659.94
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $34.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $465.25
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$21.35
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $45.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $454.25
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- -$9.95
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $30.87
- Potential payout
- $419.99
- Potential profit
- $389.12
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$17.65
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.1%
- Current value
- $43.23
- Potential payout
- $391.25
- Potential profit
- $348.02
- Multiplier
- 9.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.37
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $12.72
- Potential payout
- $385.58
- Potential profit
- $372.86
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $19.25
- Potential payout
- $261.9
- Potential profit
- $242.65
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- $4.62
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $185
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $193.65
- Potential profit
- $190.75
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.36
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $49.24
- Potential payout
- $156.33
- Potential profit
- $107.09
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $3.91
No position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $61.23
- Potential payout
- $107.44
- Potential profit
- $46.21
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $16.53
- Potential payout
- $63.59
- Potential profit
- $47.06
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $1.96
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.74
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $307.28
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.3
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $153.68
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.06
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Multiplier
- 4.56x
- User PnL
- $25.8
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $22
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.22
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- $13.09
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $9.72
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.72
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.19
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.8
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- -$12.11
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$15.85
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$17.68
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.49
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$23.27
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$24.37
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.6%
- Multiplier
- 5.39x
- User PnL
- -$47.1
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$60
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No 57% 107.44 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 6.6% 220 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?Yes 22.9% 63.59 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?No 56.6% 107.55 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?No 66% 58 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?No 52% 165.55 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22?Yes 13.4% 20 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?Yes 50.1% 337.77 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22?Yes 10% 30 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?Yes 47.3% 337.77 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22?Yes 4.3% 50 shares
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?No 0.7% 1,000 shares