Yes position
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $4.4
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- $3.3
Polymarket Trader
0x995f...414d
0x995f1ceaf561264880dbdb2985d88ac071d0414d
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $12.2
- Realized PnL
- $10.83
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.65
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $548.35
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $219.87
- Potential profit
- $218.77
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $88.45
- Potential profit
- $88.27
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $2.91
- Potential payout
- $64.76
- Potential profit
- $61.85
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $2.33
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.35
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.65
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $13
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.05
- Potential profit
- $10.05
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $1.61
- Potential payout
- $4.55
- Potential profit
- $2.93
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.21
N
No position
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.03
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Will White House post 120-139 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
Ends Jul 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.96
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Yes 22% 4.55 shares
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 0.9% 105 shares
- Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No 19.9% 5.03 shares
- Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?Yes 2.9% 13 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 12?Yes 7.4% 26.18 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.6% 50 shares
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 0.8% 114.87 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?Yes 4.1% 10 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?Yes 0.9% 49.76 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?Yes 0.9% 5 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?Yes 4% 10 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?Yes 0.9% 5 shares