Polymarket Trader

theseis

0x998837b9adce8d31aa9d5a80203cef693780c67a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $811.2
Realized PnL: $942.61
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $765
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $235
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $46.2
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $173.8
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$22.6

Yes position

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.49
Potential profit: $100.49
User PnL: -$1.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.99

No position

Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.04

No position

Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.64

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.29

No position

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

No position

Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-24?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

No position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.31

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.13

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.08

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

No position

Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 28?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.6

Estevam position

Nascimento vs. Estevam

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$1.96

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$29.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$52.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?

Yes 1.9% 100.49 shares
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?

No 96.5% 1,333.03 shares
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?

No 75% 124.61 shares
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?

Yes 4% 181.59 shares
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?

No 96.4% 335.52 shares
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?

No 96.1% 335.53 shares
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?

Yes 0.3% 500 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

No 96.8% 221.37 shares
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

No 94.2% 214.35 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

Yes 94.1% 42.64 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

Yes 46.9% 42.64 shares
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Yes 0.5% 1,000 shares