Polymarket Trader

erlichbachmn

0x999f61d400da1804af3c250b3236a60101c3addb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.26K
Realized PnL: $2.8K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.55K
Potential profit: $10.55K
User PnL: -$399.57

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $27.11
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$33.88

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$761.4

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.93
Potential profit: $999.93
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $951
Potential profit: $950.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$497.49

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $310.89
Potential payout: $863.59
Potential profit: $552.7
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $9.94

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $156.4
Potential payout: $857
Potential profit: $700.6
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$1.29

No position

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $799.99
Potential profit: $799.99
User PnL: -$328

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $8.96
Potential payout: $779.25
Potential profit: $770.29
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$91.04

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $108.5
Potential payout: $699.98
Potential profit: $591.48
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$38.5

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $187.65
Potential payout: $636.09
Potential profit: $448.45
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$25.54

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $446.9
Potential payout: $629.44
Potential profit: $182.54
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$32.32

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $77.63
Potential payout: $621
Potential profit: $543.38
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$27.95

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $589.99
Potential profit: $589.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$176.7

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $583.01
Potential profit: $583.01
User PnL: -$355.63

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $48.37
Potential payout: $569
Potential profit: $520.64
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$93.88

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $538
Potential profit: $538
User PnL: -$118.36

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.99
Potential profit: $509.99
User PnL: -$260.1

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 77.2%
Current value: $386
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $114
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $259.88
Potential payout: $456
Potential profit: $196.13
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$50.21

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $438
User PnL: -$166.44

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $67.19
Potential payout: $433.46
Potential profit: $366.28
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$30.76

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $101.15
Potential payout: $425
Potential profit: $323.85
Multiplier: 4.20x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $71.23
Potential payout: $407.05
Potential profit: $335.82
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$128.77

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.44

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.09

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $228

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $216.66

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $199.33

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.48

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $148.62

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.98

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $127.92

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82

Yes position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 38.7%
Multiplier: 2.59x
User PnL: $71.5

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.8

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $61.5

Yes position

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.98

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $35.01

Yes position

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.46

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $25.74

Yes position

Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 68%
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $25.08

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $21.49

Yes position

Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.41

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $17.22

Yes position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.19 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.21 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.23 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 76% 565.8 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 71.5% 18.33 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 88% 15 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 72.1% 3,492.42 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

No 94% 110 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 92.7% 289 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No 70.9% 698 shares
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

No 88% 123 shares
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?

Yes 72% 264 shares