Polymarket Trader

ferliu

0x9a31f52b432003d464704c37aff239bb2cfcb2c2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $242.05
Realized PnL: $4.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.08K
Potential profit: $2.08K
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $4.89
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.39K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$7.11

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $15.67
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $651
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $7.67

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $8.72
Potential payout: $645.83
Potential profit: $637.11
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $17.08
Potential payout: $644.44
Potential profit: $627.37
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $6.08

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $8.25
Potential payout: $611.11
Potential profit: $602.86
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $10.69
Potential payout: $509.07
Potential profit: $498.38
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$7.31

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $4.51
Potential payout: $429.82
Potential profit: $425.31
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$3.49

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $355.23
Potential profit: $355.23
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Paraguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $325.39
Potential profit: $322.3
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$4.91

Yes position

Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $14.58
Potential payout: $320.43
Potential profit: $305.86
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$3.42

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $319.5
Potential profit: $319.5
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $16.46
Potential payout: $313.57
Potential profit: $297.11
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $6.46

Yes position

Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $46.22
Potential payout: $308.1
Potential profit: $261.89
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $22.01

Yes position

Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $5.73
Potential payout: $301.34
Potential profit: $295.62
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$4.27

Yes position

Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$33

Down position

Solana Up or Down - April 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $297.42
Potential profit: $297.42
User PnL: -$56.5

Yes position

Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $10.46
Potential payout: $295.42
Potential profit: $284.97
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$3.54

Yes position

Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $11.19
Potential payout: $276.19
Potential profit: $265
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$6.81

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $270.19
Potential profit: $259.78
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $15.43
Potential payout: $259.27
Potential profit: $243.84
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$1.57

Yes position

Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $22.4
Potential payout: $248.89
Potential profit: $226.49
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $15.3
Potential payout: $244.86
Potential profit: $229.56
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$4.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $669.23

Yes position

Will $MELANIA FDV be $1-3b on Friday?

Ends Jan 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293.14

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.18

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $234.35

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.77

Yes position

Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December 2024?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.73

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $191.18

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in February?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.44

Yes position

Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172.96

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $165.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.8

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.69

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.27

Yes position

Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?

Ends May 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.18

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.4

Yes position

Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%?

Ends Feb 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.2

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.24

Up position

Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.78

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Yes 17% 21.98 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?

Yes 9.9% 101.01 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27?

No 34.8% 43.1 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Yes 32.5% 10 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?

Yes 7% 143.85 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?

Yes 6% 83.89 shares
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5

Over 35% 114.29 shares
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5

Over 30% 66.67 shares
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

Over 53% 75.47 shares
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5

Over 31% 32.26 shares
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5

Over 58% 25.86 shares
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5

Over 58% 25.86 shares