Polymarket Trader

chainoracle

0x9a56de0b97b9705bc21beec4f606690f5ae1530e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.01K
Realized PnL: $19.42K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$1.5K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $4.5K
User PnL: -$627.65

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $3.28K
Potential payout: $3.75K
Potential profit: $468.75
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $281.25

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $3.29K
Potential payout: $3.37K
Potential profit: $79.21
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $291.58

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $331.73
Potential payout: $2.88K
Potential profit: $2.55K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.17K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$708.33

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.42K
Potential payout: $2.42K
Potential profit: $1K
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$84.68

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$36

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$1.08K

Yes position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $11.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$5.25

Yes position

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $29.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $7.64
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$10.42

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$520.43

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $781
Potential profit: $781
User PnL: -$446.11

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $500
Potential payout: $675.68
Potential profit: $175.68
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $552.36
Potential payout: $675.68
Potential profit: $123.31
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $52.37

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $580.13
Potential payout: $641.03
Potential profit: $60.9
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $80.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.81K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55K

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $980.7

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $740

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $571.2

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $570.08

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $500

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $355.55

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.2

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $261.46

No position

Will Russia join the Board of Peace?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.2

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.99

Parks position

Ostrava Open: Alycia Parks vs Julia Grabher

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

Celtics position

Spread: Celtics (-12.5)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192

Lightning position

Bruins vs. Lightning

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136

Heat position

Bulls vs. Heat

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $115.63

No position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.32

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.03

Team WE position

LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85

Yes position

Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-11?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.8

No position

Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.6

Alexandrova position

Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Team Liquid position

Valorant: Team Liquid vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.7% 3,125 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 74% 675.68 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 62% 2,419.35 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 63% 1,100.06 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 37% 2,358.72 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

No 14% 1,500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

No 14% 349.28 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

No 14% 448.66 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

No 13.9% 1,999.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 67.8% 128.16 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Yes 53% 772 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Yes 55% 20 shares