Polymarket Trader

The-Joker

@Joker_Poly

0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $80.55K
Realized PnL: $73.79K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $40.35K
Potential payout: $40.41K
Potential profit: $60.62
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $25.08K
Potential payout: $25.12K
Potential profit: $37.68
User PnL: $576.09

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 39.2%
Current value: $1.8K
Potential payout: $4.6K
Potential profit: $2.8K
Multiplier: 2.55x
User PnL: $415.9

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.85K
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $365.1
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $650.07

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $1.23K
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $772.16
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $843.28

No position

Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $1.49K
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $89.78
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $97.65

Yes position

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.46K
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $0.73
User PnL: $372.73

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.27K
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: $45.7

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $846.64
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $282.21
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $293.21

No position

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $901.81
Potential payout: $910
Potential profit: $8.19
User PnL: $28.21

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $562.42
Potential payout: $858.66
Potential profit: $296.24
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$23.81

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $804.29
Potential profit: $804.29
User PnL: -$361.29

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $534.48
Potential payout: $628.8
Potential profit: $94.32
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $82.77

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 81.2%
Current value: $468.16
Potential payout: $576.91
Potential profit: $108.75
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $60.83

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $246.76
Potential payout: $530.66
Potential profit: $283.9
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$59

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $213.49
Potential payout: $527.14
Potential profit: $313.65
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $36.65

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $376.91
Potential payout: $483.22
Potential profit: $106.31
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $59.72

No position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $456.89
Potential payout: $465.5
Potential profit: $8.61
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $37.94

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $34.83
Potential payout: $464.41
Potential profit: $429.58
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$41.31

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $352.42
Potential payout: $448.94
Potential profit: $96.52
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $188.76

No position

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $354.79
Potential payout: $414.96
Potential profit: $60.17
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $93.35

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $212.91
Potential payout: $349.03
Potential profit: $136.12
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$51.99

No position

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $182.87
Potential payout: $297.35
Potential profit: $114.48
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $28.92

No position

Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $274.8
Potential payout: $275.08
Potential profit: $0.28
User PnL: $17.75

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.64K

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.32K

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89K

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61K

Yes position

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.47K

Yes position

Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.12K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52K

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92K

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.21K

Yes position

Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.19K

Yes position

Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.99K

No position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93K

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87K

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.82K

Yes position

Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76K

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $1.71K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6K

Yes position

Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 97% 1,874.04 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 1.2% 1,099.7 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

Yes 98.1% 68.24 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 52.3% 523.16 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 41.2% 116.29 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 11.9% 49.97 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 13% 67.5 shares
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

No 11.7% 342.78 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 98.5% 3,242.8 shares
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 30% 204.29 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 97.4% 3,201.37 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 97.3% 4,438.95 shares