Onswaggie

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $46
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $39.88
Potential profit: $34.1
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $37.5
Potential profit: $31.69
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $30.89
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.18

No position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $20.74
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $13.26
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $3.74

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.21
Potential profit: $31.21
User PnL: -$17

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.3%
Current value: $10.55
Potential payout: $29.94
Potential profit: $19.39
Multiplier: 2.84x
User PnL: $5.55

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $4.88
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $20.13
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.86
Potential profit: $22.86
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $20.82
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $10.82

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $14.55
Potential payout: $20.2
Potential profit: $5.66
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $1.62

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $15.97
Potential payout: $19.35
Potential profit: $3.39
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $3.97

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 53.8%
Current value: $10.24
Potential payout: $19.05
Potential profit: $8.81
Multiplier: 1.86x
User PnL: $4.24

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $12.46
Potential payout: $18.46
Potential profit: $6
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $9.91
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $8.27
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.02
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $14.22
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$1.98

Yes position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $7.83
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $8.83
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.32
Potential profit: $16.32
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $14.33
Potential profit: $12.18
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.24
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$4.96

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $8.72
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $3.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $12.63
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $2.63

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $11.62
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $0.28
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.62

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $7.26
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $2.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.38

No position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $24.72

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.69

Pittsburgh Pirates position

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.63

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $7.82

Lakers position

NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.52

Yes position

Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.36

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.46

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.29

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.27

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.11

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.08

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.67

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.15

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.44

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?