0x9b1fb3472172ccf9ca9ceb9d0bce63cb8519ff2

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.58
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $448.43
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $10.49
Potential payout: $322.92
Potential profit: $312.42
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $5.74

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $248
Potential profit: $247.38
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$17.26

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $3.26
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $206.75
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $8.25
Potential payout: $208.82
Potential profit: $200.58
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $1.15

Yes position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $181.4
Potential profit: $179.5
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$23.67

Yes position

Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.54
Potential payout: $155.22
Potential profit: $146.69
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$12.26

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $141.47
Potential profit: $141.47
User PnL: -$6.3

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $23.62
Potential payout: $134.97
Potential profit: $111.35
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$46.38

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $90.35
Potential payout: $134.85
Potential profit: $44.5
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $5.35

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $3.32
Potential payout: $125.33
Potential profit: $122.01
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $13.69
Potential payout: $109.09
Potential profit: $95.4
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $106
Potential profit: $105.42
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$4.72

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $20.62
Potential payout: $104.94
Potential profit: $84.32
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $3.62

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.9
Potential profit: $104.9
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $104.44
Potential profit: $102.83
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $14.1
Potential payout: $103.27
Potential profit: $89.17
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $76
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $88
Potential profit: $86.02
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$6.82

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $84.67
Potential profit: $84
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$18.2

Yes position

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $33.43
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $23.71
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $25.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.63
Potential profit: $46.63
User PnL: -$9.7

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $41.91
Potential profit: $41.7
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$15.79

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $423.45

Yes position

Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $305.11

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265.99

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.7

Yes position

Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.28

Yes position

Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.17

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.16

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on February 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.33

Yes position

Anfernee Simons: Points O/U 18.5

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.93

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.11

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.69

Yes position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.71

Yes position

Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.75

No position

Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.57

76ers position

76ers vs. Warriors

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 28?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.5

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?