0x9B4CFA83Ad41FDD00362eE053aeC4D720d598980-1777199414661

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.38
Potential profit: $66.38
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.52
Potential profit: $34.52
User PnL: -$10

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $21.13
Potential payout: $25.3
Potential profit: $4.17
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $3.16
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$1.84

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $13.16
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $4.15
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $7.22
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.8
Potential profit: $9.8
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $9.62
User PnL: -$5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $3.8
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $1.85
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $6.77
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$3.15

No position

Japan recession in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $6.41
Potential payout: $7.67
Potential profit: $1.27
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $7.25
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $2.09
Potential payout: $6.85
Potential profit: $4.76
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$2.91

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $6.76
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.63

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $6.49
Potential profit: $0.68
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $5.08
Potential payout: $6.44
Potential profit: $1.35
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $6.3
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $5.76
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $0.34
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $5.37
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.37

No position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.2
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $5.14
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $0.36
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $1.29
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.06

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 60%
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $5.85

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.64

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.22

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.07

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.07

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?