Yes position
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $249.23
- Potential profit
- $249.23
- User PnL
- -$3
Polymarket Trader
Es123
0x9bd9c2b8fc2cc70198cc7ace3738dbd75dafdcf8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $64.83
- Realized PnL
- $94.17
- Win rate
- 65.2%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $230.77
- Potential profit
- $230.77
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $208.33
- Potential profit
- $208.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $186.91
- Potential profit
- $186.91
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.1
- Potential profit
- $169.1
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $13.4
- Potential payout
- $168.54
- Potential profit
- $155.14
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $14.21
- Potential payout
- $167.21
- Potential profit
- $153
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$5.79
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $111.11
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.55
- Potential payout
- $107.14
- Potential profit
- $105.59
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
Yes position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $73.61
- Potential profit
- $69.56
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.95
Yes position
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72.99
- Potential profit
- $72.99
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $16.33
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $50.33
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $6.33
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.61
- Potential profit
- $60.61
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.25
- Potential profit
- $55.25
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.8%
- Current value
- $9.66
- Potential payout
- $51.55
- Potential profit
- $41.88
- Multiplier
- 5.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.41
- Potential profit
- $44.41
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.02
- Potential profit
- $42.02
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $38.66
- Potential profit
- $37.21
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$3.55
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.26
- Potential profit
- $36.26
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.89
- Potential profit
- $34.89
- User PnL
- -$14.65
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $4.17
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $29.17
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.43
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.72
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.93
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.74
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.89
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $8.27
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.9%
- Multiplier
- 2.09x
- User PnL
- $2.85
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
No position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
Google's Wiz acquisition blocked before July?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Yes 8.9% 168.54 shares
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Yes 47% 27.34 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes 12% 167.21 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 95% 19.23 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes 15% 66.67 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 15% 33.33 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 19.4% 51.55 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes 5.9% 169.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 52% 19.23 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 45% 11.11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 56% 17.86 shares
- Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?Yes 4.1% 24.14 shares