Getrekt1810

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $11.63
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3.38
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $10.42
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.58
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $12.67
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $2.33
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.38
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $8.63
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $9.37
Potential payout: $14.99
Potential profit: $5.62
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 86%-89%?

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $5.2
Potential payout: $13.5
Potential profit: $8.3
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $9.78
Potential payout: $12.15
Potential profit: $2.37
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 18.5¢-19¢?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $9.46
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $1.54
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.21

No position

Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.9
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $8.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile <18¢?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $9.59
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.41
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $7.4
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.6
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $1.7

No position

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 18¢-18.5¢?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $8.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.15
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $6.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.35
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $7.4
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.6
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor <83%?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $7.17
Potential payout: $9.5
Potential profit: $2.33
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $6.08
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.92
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $7.4
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $6.52
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.48
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $1.025B?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $6.34
Potential payout: $7.5
Potential profit: $1.16
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $7.27
Potential profit: $3.38
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be below 81%?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $4.86
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.86

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.4

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.74

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.5

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.44

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.87

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.83

Yes position

Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.52

Yes position

Will Google (GOOGL) close at $325-$330 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.52

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will Solana reach $100 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460-$470 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.65

India position

T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will Meta (META) close at $620-$630 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

No position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.72

No position

Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?