No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $656.67
- Potential profit
- $656.67
- User PnL
- -$504.2
Polymarket Trader
randomfellabettin
0x9d42fcfd7402cfb5e744fde598a998bb62d68fbb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $532.57
- Realized PnL
- $3.02K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $202.84
- Potential payout
- $340.91
- Potential profit
- $138.07
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $32.84
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $171.92
- Potential payout
- $309.76
- Potential profit
- $137.85
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$153
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $87.06
- Potential payout
- $120.08
- Potential profit
- $33.02
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $14.55
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $48.62
- Potential payout
- $50.41
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $15.9
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $22.14
- Potential payout
- $26.84
- Potential profit
- $4.7
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $2.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.26
No position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.07
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.36
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.11
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.08
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.14
No position
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.19
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.58
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.39
No position
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.99
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.93
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.48
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.3
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.57
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.48
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.16
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.75
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.41
No position
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $80.15
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.22
No position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.44
Yes position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.15
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.25
No position
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 54% 37.04 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 181.82 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 68.2% 120.06 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 55% 90.91 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 12% 410 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 36% 102.04 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 49% 102.04 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 69% 14.49 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 79.7% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 50.2% 5.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 62% 161.29 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 74% 7.5 shares