No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $3.49K
- Potential payout
- $4.31K
- Potential profit
- $819.51
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $168.48
Polymarket Trader
ToyodaMan
0x9d4aea6f0609c6a77070c573d78679ba4d136cb1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.74K
- Realized PnL
- $13.03K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.34K
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $208.87
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $118.47
No position
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Ends Oct 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $1.19K
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $89.25
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $134.73
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.7%
- Current value
- $333.04
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $790.19
- Multiplier
- 3.37x
- User PnL
- $94.85
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $105.84
- Potential payout
- $325.65
- Potential profit
- $219.81
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$116.5
Yes position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $134
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $66
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $16
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.1%
- Current value
- $68.56
- Potential payout
- $166.81
- Potential profit
- $98.25
- Multiplier
- 2.43x
- User PnL
- -$11.49
Yes position
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $40.39
- Potential payout
- $84.14
- Potential profit
- $43.75
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$39.32
Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $20.5
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $9.56
- Potential payout
- $10.74
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.07
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.12
- Potential payout
- $6.76
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $4.37
- Potential payout
- $5.79
- Potential profit
- $1.42
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.73
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $4.43
- Potential payout
- $5.18
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Dispatch win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
No position
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $873.22
Yes position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $862.47
No position
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $825.22
No position
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $825.08
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.28
No position
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $440.48
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $413.06
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $407.16
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $393.55
Yes position
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $380.79
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
Ends Aug 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.52
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.13
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.98
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $294.18
No position
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.17
Yes position
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.46
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.28
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.2
Yes position
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.18
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $234.2
Yes position
Will MrBeast hit 464 Million subscribers by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No 82.1% 411.48 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Yes 47.8% 140.98 shares
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No 83% 240.96 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 29.2% 513.01 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes 99% 441.81 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes 49% 45 shares
- Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?No 88.4% 138 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 15.7% 295.1 shares
- Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?No 89.1% 54 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 13.3% 302.12 shares
- Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?No 89.4% 38 shares
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No 81.8% 600 shares