No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $14.78K
- Potential payout
- $15.64K
- Potential profit
- $860.39
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $582.39
Polymarket Trader
AlAhmeda
@AlAhmedaPM
0x9d736920e486176e7df7a76fa218f1ebd853216b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $116.1K
- Realized PnL
- $77.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $12.98K
- Potential payout
- $13.16K
- Potential profit
- $177.63
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $740.35
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $42.68
- Potential payout
- $12.2K
- Potential profit
- $12.15K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$150.05
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $11.42K
- Potential payout
- $12.04K
- Potential profit
- $619.83
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $133.73
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.48K
- Potential payout
- $10.47K
- Potential profit
- $994.64
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $10.1K
- Potential payout
- $10.26K
- Potential profit
- $159.04
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $127.65
Yes position
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $65
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.94K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $135
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.86K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $7.96K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $36
- User PnL
- $12.01
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $7.46K
- Potential payout
- $7.78K
- Potential profit
- $323.01
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $136.35
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $4.77K
- Potential payout
- $7.57K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $4.86K
- Potential payout
- $7.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $41.28
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $5.46K
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $71.39
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $24
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.98K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$316
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $4.58K
- Potential payout
- $5.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$240.05
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5.49K
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- User PnL
- $5.27
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $573.68
- Potential payout
- $5.22K
- Potential profit
- $4.64K
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.43K
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $4.39K
- Potential payout
- $5.1K
- Potential profit
- $714.47
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.74
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $4.89K
- Potential payout
- $4.9K
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $3.59K
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$67.9
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $363.75
- Potential payout
- $4.6K
- Potential profit
- $4.24K
- Multiplier
- 12.66x
- User PnL
- -$258.63
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.9%
- Current value
- $2.33K
- Potential payout
- $4.32K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 1.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.49K
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $31.43
- Potential payout
- $3.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$38.83
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.7%
- Current value
- $2.88K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $521.9
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $76.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $7.6K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.09K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.57K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
No position
Israel strikes Iran before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.84K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 95.8% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 97.9% 87.23 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 150 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.4% 8,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99.2% 201.15 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 96.8% 381.12 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 10.4% 579.16 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 90.1% 200 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 99.9% 5,000 shares
- Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 59.6% 200 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?No 96% 100 shares
- Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5Over 92% 75.06 shares