No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $63.5
- Potential payout
- $126.99K
- Potential profit
- $126.93K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$27.36K
Polymarket Trader
mcorleone
0x9e7e57fbc4dd03dc7b0eea98f1f01bc100083e1d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $57.33K
- Realized PnL
- $142.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $56.67K
- Potential payout
- $70K
- Potential profit
- $13.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $22.26K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.85K
- Potential profit
- $20.85K
- User PnL
- -$15.24K
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $477
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $123
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.1%
- Current value
- $118.55
- Potential payout
- $328.39
- Potential profit
- $209.84
- Multiplier
- 2.77x
- User PnL
- $19.74
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.18K
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.1K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.8K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.28K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.27K
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5K
Yes position
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87K
Yes position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $5.46K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
No position
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
No position
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $979.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 21.9% 1,110.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22% 230 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.1% 3,030 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.3% 60 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.3% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.3% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.3% 400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.4% 2,750.56 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.5% 6,330.18 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.4% 2,672.11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.5% 3,422.34 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.5% 3,293.17 shares