Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $37.28
- Potential payout
- $87.72
- Potential profit
- $50.44
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$12.72
Polymarket Trader
lupodw
0x9f46f618d5eb2101a3b9f3376a18025b58dca61a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $296.9
- Realized PnL
- $291.26
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $46.32
- Potential payout
- $72.95
- Potential profit
- $26.63
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$3.68
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $29.09
- Potential payout
- $65.37
- Potential profit
- $36.28
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$9.91
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $56.49
- Potential payout
- $64.56
- Potential profit
- $8.07
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.49
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $50.47
- Potential payout
- $55.76
- Potential profit
- $5.3
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.47
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $46.15
- Potential profit
- $28.15
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $35.71
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.4%
- Current value
- $18.22
- Potential payout
- $31.22
- Potential profit
- $13
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $18.58
- Potential payout
- $30.21
- Potential profit
- $11.63
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.42
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.44
- Potential profit
- $26.44
- User PnL
- -$23
No position
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $11.62
- Potential payout
- $21.51
- Potential profit
- $9.9
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- -$3.01
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.12
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $10.65
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $9.72
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $1.39
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.51
- Potential profit
- $4.51
- User PnL
- -$4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.82
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.08
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.1
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.29
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.03
No position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78
No position
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Multiplier
- 1.76x
- User PnL
- $9.25
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.25
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.19
No position
North Korea missile launch by February 14?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.81
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.16
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.46
No position
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $6.55
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.39
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.3
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.85
No position
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27
Yes position
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo 81% 14.75 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 91% 20.88 shares
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 66% 30.01 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes 59.7% 65.37 shares
- Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 54.5% 72.02 shares
- US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Yes 54.2% 46.15 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No 65% 15.38 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No 99.9% 17.44 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No 99.9% 18.18 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 88.6% 4.51 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 71% 28.17 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No 55% 18.18 shares