No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.4%
- Current value
- $1.65K
- Potential payout
- $9K
- Potential profit
- $7.35K
- Multiplier
- 5.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.05K
Polymarket Trader
MrMelonHead
0x9f66aa958734d9d5af35f5f19a276d23e84f3a50
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.54K
- Realized PnL
- $32.13K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.54K
- Potential profit
- $5.54K
- User PnL
- -$961.23
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.4%
- Current value
- $2.89K
- Potential payout
- $5.04K
- Potential profit
- $2.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $872.43
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $3.4K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- User PnL
- $576.12
N
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $444.08
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $21.2
No position
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $1.26K
- Potential payout
- $1.45K
- Potential profit
- $188.5
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $174.5
No position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $166.99
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $273.97
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $754.16
- Potential payout
- $892.5
- Potential profit
- $138.34
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$45.84
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $817.03
- Potential payout
- $817.44
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- User PnL
- $243.03
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.23
- Potential payout
- $817.37
- Potential profit
- $816.15
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$13.77
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $453.84
- Potential payout
- $737.96
- Potential profit
- $284.11
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$46.16
No position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $505.5
- Potential payout
- $660.78
- Potential profit
- $155.28
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $4.23
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $546.11
- Potential payout
- $610.52
- Potential profit
- $64.41
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $106.11
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $22.88
- Potential payout
- $586.65
- Potential profit
- $563.77
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- -$349.12
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $90.97
- Potential payout
- $551.32
- Potential profit
- $460.35
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$314.03
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.8%
- Current value
- $46.21
- Potential payout
- $473.91
- Potential profit
- $427.7
- Multiplier
- 10.26x
- User PnL
- -$63.17
Yes position
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $319.73
- Potential payout
- $470.19
- Potential profit
- $150.46
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$80.27
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $429.56
- Potential payout
- $444.44
- Potential profit
- $14.89
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $29.56
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $26.86
- Potential payout
- $419.62
- Potential profit
- $392.76
- Multiplier
- 15.63x
- User PnL
- $6.86
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $359.49
- Potential payout
- $401.66
- Potential profit
- $42.17
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $59.49
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $126
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $274
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $26
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $198.58
- Potential payout
- $389.36
- Potential profit
- $190.79
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $48.57
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $304.48
- Potential payout
- $371.31
- Potential profit
- $66.84
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $4.48
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $123.65
- Potential payout
- $321.17
- Potential profit
- $197.52
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$16.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.36K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.73K
Yes position
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69K
No position
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Sean Strickland position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
Rafael Jodar position
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
No position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $931
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $914.91
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $894.24
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $772.02
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $725.91
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $697.01
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $680.58
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.31
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $556.54
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $553.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 70.7% 141.46 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 70% 142.86 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 69.1% 159.23 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 58% 51.76 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 13% 271 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 61.1% 65.47 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 21.1% 475.04 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 66.3% 301.87 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 54.9% 3,966.95 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 39.8% 138.34 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 75.7% 52.86 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 73% 136.99 shares