Polymarket Trader

Naropoly

0x9f83f83bdfc209c6fade8a2c77ea9667e9176cd9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $42.3K
Realized PnL: $35.78K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $15.63K
Potential payout: $16.29K
Potential profit: $659.78
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $721.23

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $6.8K
Potential payout: $6.85K
Potential profit: $51.37
User PnL: $102.42

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $6.5K
Potential payout: $6.6K
Potential profit: $95.71
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $267.41

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $6.15K
Potential payout: $6.17K
Potential profit: $15.42
User PnL: $127.93

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $4.63K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $375
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $25.01

No position

Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.27K
Potential profit: $3.27K
User PnL: -$3.19K

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $91.33
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: -$126.3

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $34.39
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.13

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 90.1%
Current value: $454.13
Potential payout: $504.02
Potential profit: $49.9
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $61.02

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $499.97
Potential profit: $496.72
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$109.62

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $352.77
Potential payout: $390.02
Potential profit: $37.25
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$10.73

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $302.31
Potential payout: $321.61
Potential profit: $19.3
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $85.53

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $320
User PnL: -$226.6

Yes position

Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$4.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $284.7
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $13.2

No position

Will Vincent Keymer win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $224.99
Potential profit: $224.99
User PnL: -$98.75

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $171.43
Potential profit: $171.43
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.5
Potential profit: $102.5
User PnL: -$30.55

Yes position

Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $91.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.05
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $75.51
Potential profit: $74.57
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$61.73

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Anish Giri win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.92
Potential profit: $26.92
User PnL: -$2.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.16K

No position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.49K

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

No position

MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?

Ends Dec 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71K

No position

Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

Yes position

Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17K

No position

Will Netherlands beat Hungary?

Ends Oct 11, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

Yes position

Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $964.24

No position

Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?

Ends Jul 27, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $911.34

Yes position

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $901.98

Yes position

Will India win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?

Ends Sep 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $896.3

No position

Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $858.04

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $822.67

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $812.25

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $782.67

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $772.01

No position

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $762.61

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $718.7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 85% 20 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 83% 75.51 shares
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Yes 89.1% 336.83 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.6% 540.89 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

No 0.6% 166.67 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 60% 16.67 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.4% 10,000 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 94% 472.4 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 42% 47.62 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

No 86% 46.51 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 92% 100 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 91% 58 shares