0x9FC91Ea0410Aafdb5C6D64e8385aDa1B154acDe1-1781357914277

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $502.8
Potential payout: $957.71
Potential profit: $454.91
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$24.05

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $36.83
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $17.55
Potential profit: $17.39
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $14.09
Potential profit: $13.59
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.21
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.61

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $6.56
Potential profit: $3.08
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $5.63
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Clavicular sentenced to prison?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $5.01
Potential profit: $4.26
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $3.53
Potential payout: $5.01
Potential profit: $1.48
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.73
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.63
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $4.4
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $1.86
Potential profit: $0.7
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1.61
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.34
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.16
Potential profit: $0.17
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.06
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Under position

Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Under position

Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET