x4gik4nusk3k

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $13.48
Potential profit: $12.47
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$4.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.32
Potential payout: $9.33
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.42
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.3

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $6.69
Potential payout: $7.19
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.87
Potential profit: $6.86
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $4.61
Potential payout: $6.63
Potential profit: $2.02
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $5.81
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.42

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 7?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $5.43
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $4.84
Potential payout: $4.9
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $4.72
Potential profit: $1.86
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$1.3

No position

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $4.58
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $3.56
Potential profit: $2.15
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $2.59
Potential payout: $3.48
Potential profit: $0.89
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $3.21
Potential payout: $3.32
Potential profit: $0.1
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 7?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.29
Potential profit: $3.29
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.24
Potential profit: $3.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $2.34
Potential payout: $3.19
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.98
Potential profit: $2.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $0.49
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $2.38
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $2.28
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $2.16
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $2.02
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.17

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.57

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 5PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.03

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.03

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.13

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.93

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.32

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET