RobertCZ

Implied probability: 13.6%
Current value: $270.98
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 7.38x
User PnL: $67.52

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $983.5
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$86.3

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $163.85
Potential payout: $840.28
Potential profit: $676.42
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $13.86

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$118.39

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $698.25
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$54.25

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $123.34
Potential payout: $600.22
Potential profit: $476.87
Multiplier: 4.87x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $550.83
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$5.28

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $44.64
Potential payout: $531.37
Potential profit: $486.74
Multiplier: 11.90x
User PnL: -$8.74

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $254.99
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $245
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: $132.84

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $424.57
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.7%
Current value: $66.64
Potential payout: $400.25
Potential profit: $333.61
Multiplier: 6.01x
User PnL: -$48.26

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $397
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$75.18

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $4.79
Potential payout: $399.58
Potential profit: $394.79
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$29.84

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.25
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$29.25

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $6.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $293.85
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$23.85

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$26.2

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $276.68
Potential payout: $299.11
Potential profit: $22.43
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $134.22

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $289.86
Potential profit: $289.42
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$19.57

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $54.25
Potential payout: $280.37
Potential profit: $226.12
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $24.25

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $10.94
Potential payout: $270
Potential profit: $259.07
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $15.73
Potential payout: $234.74
Potential profit: $219.01
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: $5.73

Yes position

Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $222
Potential profit: $220.45
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$18.43

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $30.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $169.1
Multiplier: 6.47x
User PnL: -$53.77

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $115
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.37

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $296.12

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $283.02

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $212.69

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $184.53

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.33

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.34

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $128.35

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.16

Yes position

Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.14

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.34

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.7

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.48

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.94

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.44

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?