0xa1095F30821ba662A6d618c3E9E6c2a371E77e42-1770424987203

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $197.5
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$7.25

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $85.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $14.5
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $78.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $21.5
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $74.59
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $6.06
Potential payout: $51.55
Potential profit: $45.49
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.88
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $17.75
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $32.24
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.2%
Current value: $7.66
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $32.34
Multiplier: 5.22x
User PnL: $2.81

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $5.02
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $34.98
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $37.1
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $1.58
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.42
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $37.46
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $4.1
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $25.91
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $16.1
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $11.9
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$10.7

No position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.79
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.9
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $19.43
Potential profit: $19.35
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.89

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.1
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.34

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.21

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.6

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET