Polymarket Trader

polybet

@NepalusN

0xa16f19d541a6756de5490191f8218016f374b703

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $9.63K
Realized PnL: $8.36K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62.8%
Current value: $2.51K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $673.6

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.2%
Current value: $1.49K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $2.51K
Multiplier: 2.69x
User PnL: -$673.99

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $249.75
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.45K
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$9.25

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $3.45K
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $249.75
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $9.25

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $65.5
Potential payout: $2.79K
Potential profit: $2.72K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$34.5

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.9%
Current value: $369.32
Potential payout: $2.19K
Potential profit: $1.82K
Multiplier: 5.93x
User PnL: $269.32

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $61.25
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $6.74

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
User PnL: -$65

Yes position

Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$9.13

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $23.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $976.5
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $522.05
Potential payout: $907.92
Potential profit: $385.87
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$120.04

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $101.39
Potential payout: $881.63
Potential profit: $780.24
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$7.41

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $29.93
Potential payout: $643.72
Potential profit: $613.79
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $4.83

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $127.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $372.5
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $27.5

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $10.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $489.75
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$4.25

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $402.5
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $47.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $452.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $12.25
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $487.74
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$42.75

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $499.73
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $499.73
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.75

Yes position

Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $18.81
Potential payout: $488.6
Potential profit: $469.79
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$16.82

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $438.2
Potential payout: $455.98
Potential profit: $17.78
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $405.2

No position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210.81
Potential profit: $210.81
User PnL: -$139.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Someone else next Prime Minister of France?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $770.17

Yes position

Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $563.29

No position

Will the Monad public sale commitments be greater than $2B?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $558.86

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $543.6

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $524.32

Yes position

Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1?

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $408.61

Yes position

Will MrBeast's latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $312.63

Yes position

Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?

Ends Oct 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $305.5

Yes position

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197.79

No position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.02

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.92

Yes position

Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $154.33

No position

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.84

No position

French election called by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.08

No position

Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.1

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.2

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.84

Yes position

Will MrBeast's trap video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.2% 1,000 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.8% 100 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17.7% 100 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 66% 100 shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

Yes 6% 501 shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

Yes 6% 585.93 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 61% 182 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 71% 29.59 shares
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 13% 300 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 75% 109.93 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 74% 226 shares
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 4.7% 1,166.6 shares