Volstead

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $17.89
Potential payout: $1.88K
Potential profit: $1.87K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $2.89

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $21.71
Potential payout: $964.99
Potential profit: $943.28
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$3.29

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $11.2
Potential payout: $678.73
Potential profit: $667.53
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $107.66
Potential payout: $516.36
Potential profit: $408.7
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $37.66

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $7.41
Potential payout: $477.78
Potential profit: $470.37
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$2.59

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $461.34
Potential profit: $456.04
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $138.08
Potential payout: $345.19
Potential profit: $207.11
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $13.08

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $330.83
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $264.17
Potential payout: $267.24
Potential profit: $3.07
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $109.17

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $31.84
Potential payout: $229.92
Potential profit: $198.08
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $21.08
Potential payout: $221.88
Potential profit: $200.8
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.92

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $55.98
Potential payout: $203.56
Potential profit: $147.58
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $5.98

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $61.53
Potential payout: $195.34
Potential profit: $133.81
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$8.47

Yes position

Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $172.16
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Waymo IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $7.05
Potential payout: $169.88
Potential profit: $162.83
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$17.95

Yes position

Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $151.24
Potential profit: $151.01
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.77

Yes position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $30.77
Potential payout: $150.1
Potential profit: $119.33
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $13.97
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $133.09
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$11.03

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $5.99
Potential payout: $116.28
Potential profit: $110.29
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $12.92
Potential payout: $84.75
Potential profit: $71.82
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $17.34
Potential payout: $80.65
Potential profit: $63.31
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$7.66

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $8.18
Potential payout: $77.52
Potential profit: $69.34
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$1.82

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $10.51
Potential payout: $54.05
Potential profit: $43.54
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $21.41
Potential payout: $48.67
Potential profit: $27.25
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$3.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.15

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.89

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.17

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.58

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.43

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.85

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.61

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.69

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $28.52

Yes position

Will all of Trump's children attend the State of the Union?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.32

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.71

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.27

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $11.07

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $9.66

Yes position

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.67

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Another US bank failure by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$3.03

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?