Polymarket Trader

frog101

0xa1a3f23d5b11f4576863024c761fc75cc9fc4757

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $42.09
Realized PnL: $195.43
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32.7%
Current value: $11.02
Potential payout: $33.76
Potential profit: $22.74
Multiplier: 3.06x
User PnL: $4.02

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 9.4%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $8.93
Potential profit: $8.09
Multiplier: 10.70x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $7.58
Potential profit: $2.31
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $7.19
Potential payout: $7.43
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.19

No position

Spain snap election called in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $6.94
Potential profit: $1.84
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $1.23
Potential payout: $6.76
Potential profit: $5.52
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $5.95
Potential profit: $5.35
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $5.14
Potential payout: $5.43
Potential profit: $0.3
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $2.44
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $2.38
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $1.52
Potential profit: $0.74
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.02
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.94

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.86

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.17

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.72

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.58

Up position

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.4% 32.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Down 43% 2.33 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 83% 1.2 shares
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Yes 67.3% 7.43 shares
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 32.9% 10.52 shares
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 47.5% 10.52 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 92% 5.43 shares
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?

Yes 41% 2.44 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 66% 7.58 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 21.6% 23.15 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14.8% 6.76 shares
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.4% 58.82 shares