Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $554
- Potential profit
- $553.17
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$10.67
Polymarket Trader
0xa1BdB11beA3eD660701b1e394789d8A83d6f880b-1768258636869
0xa1bdb11bea3ed660701b1e394789d8a83d6f880b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $154.46
- Realized PnL
- $1.74K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.69
- Potential payout
- $456.96
- Potential profit
- $456.27
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$14.34
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.43
- Potential payout
- $434
- Potential profit
- $433.57
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.57
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $15.35
- Potential payout
- $345
- Potential profit
- $329.65
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $19.95
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $190.05
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5.69
Yes position
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $8.47
- Potential payout
- $120.99
- Potential profit
- $112.52
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$4.68
Yes position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $70.97
- Potential payout
- $94
- Potential profit
- $23.03
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $35.73
Yes position
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $89
- Potential profit
- $88.96
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.17
Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $52
- Potential profit
- $51.92
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.95
Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.93
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $5.14
- Potential payout
- $48.99
- Potential profit
- $43.85
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$3.02
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $13.2
- Potential payout
- $43.99
- Potential profit
- $30.79
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$6.7
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $38.38
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $3.71
- Potential payout
- $39
- Potential profit
- $35.3
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.32
Yes position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $2.25
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.75
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $3.13
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $21.88
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $23
- Potential profit
- $21.74
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Y
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.75
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.19
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $16.98
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
GTA VI released before November 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $16.99
- Potential profit
- $16.23
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $2.25
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $12.75
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.85
Yes position
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.05
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $12.77
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $83.3
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.51
No position
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.2
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.82
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.85
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Sui dip to $0.80 before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.95
Y
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Ends Oct 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.4%
- Multiplier
- 7.49x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Cimberly win Melodifestivalen 2026?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.49
Yes position
Stripe IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.89
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 24.6% 5 shares
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.7% 18 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 30% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?No 0.3% 30.5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.3% 334 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 14% 15 shares
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?Yes 20% 10 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes 19% 10 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 10% 10 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 15% 10 shares
- SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?Yes 8% 13 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.2% 500 shares