Polymarket Trader

Simsiv

0xa1c9121a1f445d82287e49b9ba8738ceb6bcfa16

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $62.82
Realized PnL: $24.5
Win rate: 20%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 5
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $3.62
Potential payout: $426.21
Potential profit: $422.59
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will Stephen Kinnock be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $112.56
Potential profit: $111.89
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.05
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Dan Jarvis be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $61.43
Potential profit: $60.23
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $10.87
Potential payout: $26.83
Potential profit: $15.96
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 39.4%
Current value: $8.74
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $13.48
Multiplier: 2.54x
User PnL: $3.74

No position

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $7.75
Potential payout: $20.4
Potential profit: $12.65
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $12.36
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $5.82
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $6.86
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $2.67
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $6.17
Potential payout: $6.38
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.17

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $1.37
Potential payout: $3.39
Potential profit: $2.02
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.63

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 43%
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$4.02

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$9.97

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?

Yes 59% 3.39 shares
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?

Yes 41% 12.2 shares
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?

Yes 41% 14.63 shares
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?

Yes 0.2% 14.08 shares
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Yes 31% 19.3 shares
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?

Yes 13.9% 59.22 shares
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Yes 32% 6.25 shares
Will Dan Jarvis be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Yes 1.6% 61.43 shares
Will Stephen Kinnock be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Yes 0.9% 112.56 shares
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?

Yes 16.9% 59.22 shares
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Yes 51.8% 19.3 shares
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?

Yes 71% 14.08 shares