Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.73K
- Potential profit
- $1.73K
- User PnL
- -$673.53
Polymarket Trader
fredrikj
0xa1cc5447893617240a80c098783f56304eff3ddb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $104.55
- Realized PnL
- -$193.37
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 2
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $700
- User PnL
- -$479
Yes position
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $104.55
- Potential payout
- $510.02
- Potential profit
- $405.46
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$154.69
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $226.88
- Potential profit
- $226.88
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $206.43
- Potential profit
- $206.43
- User PnL
- -$68.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.48
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$224.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Yes 33% 206.43 shares
- Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?Yes 34.9% 201 shares
- Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?Yes 61.8% 254.94 shares
- Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Yes 90% 175.06 shares
- Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Yes 72% 175.07 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 7.2% 1,749.2 shares
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes 15.4% 226.88 shares
- Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?Yes 44.8% 446.08 shares
- Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?Yes 39% 10 shares
- Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 69% 110.26 shares
- Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 68% 63 shares
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes 41% 50 shares