Yes position
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?
Ends Aug 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $176.72
- Potential payout
- $294.53
- Potential profit
- $117.81
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.12
Polymarket Trader
0xa23E7B0611Cb1F8a192B63EBEcDc46898B7cb010-1776026738122
0xa23e7b0611cb1f8a192b63ebecdc46898b7cb010
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $537.4
- Realized PnL
- $331.34
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $259.68
- Potential payout
- $267.99
- Potential profit
- $8.31
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $63.18
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $7.77
- Potential payout
- $196.83
- Potential profit
- $189.05
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $33.55
- Potential payout
- $131.58
- Potential profit
- $98.03
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$16.45
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.8
- Potential profit
- $52.8
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $33.88
- Potential payout
- $51.72
- Potential profit
- $17.84
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $5.43
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $33.27
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Y
Yes position
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $14.6
- Potential payout
- $33.56
- Potential profit
- $18.96
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $3.6
Y
Yes position
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $20.69
- Potential profit
- $14.69
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.45
- Potential profit
- $5.45
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.23
- Potential profit
- $4.23
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.52
Yes position
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.88
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.16
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.25
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.76
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.44
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.1
Yes position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.09
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.86
Y
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.43
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.1
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
Y
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 28% 20.69 shares
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 16% 34.28 shares
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?Yes 59.4% 16.84 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 51% 20.1 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 32.8% 33.56 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 54% 19.09 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 10% 12.85 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 13% 38.46 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 97.8% 163.63 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 38% 131.58 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 16.2% 6.19 shares
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 38.2% 26.21 shares