Polymarket Trader

0xa296...9c36

0xa296451e97ab56cc22a8b5a67a2e3c7dedf59c36

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $101.21
Realized PnL: $135.6
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $45.69
Potential payout: $49.13
Potential profit: $3.44
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.26

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $34.18
Potential payout: $37.36
Potential profit: $3.18
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $15.5

Yes position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $7.63
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $2.84
Potential payout: $3.51
Potential profit: $0.67
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $2.4
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $2.22
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $2.05
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $1.23
Potential payout: $1.91
Potential profit: $0.68
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $1.61
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $1.38
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.22
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $1.19
Potential profit: $0.7
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $1.11
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.1
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.03
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Trump out as President by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.02
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

England position

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.25

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.15

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.81

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.73

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.57

No position

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68

Yes position

Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.19

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.17

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.65

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.23

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.94

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17

No position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

Canadiens position

Canadiens vs. Lightning

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

Yes position

Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52

Norway position

Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.11

No position

Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 11?

Yes 51% 1.98 shares
US bank failure by July 31?

Yes 98% 1.03 shares
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in July?

Yes 90.8% 1.11 shares
Will Future feature Yeat on "The Real Me"?

No 97% 1.04 shares
Will Future feature Playboi Carti on "The Real Me"?

No 98% 1.03 shares
Will Future feature Yeat on "The Real Me"?

No 95% 1.06 shares
Will Future feature Yeat on "The Real Me"?

No 91% 1.11 shares
Will Future feature Ty Dolla $ign on "The Real Me"?

No 96% 1.05 shares
Will Future feature Kendrick Lamar on "The Real Me"?

No 96% 1.05 shares
Will Future feature Kendrick Lamar on "The Real Me"?

No 95% 1.06 shares
Will Future feature Yebba on "The Real Me"?

No 95% 1.06 shares
Will Future feature Chris Brown on "The Real Me"?

No 95% 1.06 shares