0xa3d17Cc64F06287B5665c252D8Bd42407B1A72Bc-1767505450736

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $302.41
Potential profit: $302.41
User PnL: -$60

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.25
Potential profit: $108.25
User PnL: -$6.99

Yes position

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $98.28
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$6.48

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $4.34
Potential payout: $91.46
Potential profit: $87.12
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$3.16

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $78.95
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $11.92
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $65
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.93
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $67.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$16.07

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $23.65
Potential payout: $58.39
Potential profit: $34.74
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $54.92
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $22.99
Potential payout: $52.86
Potential profit: $29.87
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.54
Potential profit: $44.54
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $14.98
Potential payout: $44.06
Potential profit: $29.08
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: -$15.02

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.61
Potential profit: $32.61
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $4.43
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $24.14
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$15.57

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.52
Potential profit: $22.52
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.93
Potential profit: $18.93
User PnL: -$9.84

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.8%
Current value: $4.71
Potential payout: $18.29
Potential profit: $13.58
Multiplier: 3.88x
User PnL: -$0.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.73
Potential profit: $11.73
User PnL: -$4.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.15
Potential profit: $9.15
User PnL: -$4.92

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.71
Potential profit: $5.71
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.19
Potential profit: $4.19
User PnL: -$1.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.86
Potential profit: $3.86
User PnL: -$1.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.01

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.4

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 16.2%
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: $5.59

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.02

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$4.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$6.49

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?