Polymarket Trader

ellebel

0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $342.79
Realized PnL: $397.24
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $34.53
Potential payout: $5.31K
Potential profit: $5.28K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$38.84

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $526.32
Potential profit: $526.32
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $16.85
Potential payout: $502.86
Potential profit: $486.02
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $455.37
Potential profit: $455.37
User PnL: -$190

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $10.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $323.17
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$19.83

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $21.15
Potential payout: $151.08
Potential profit: $129.93
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$8.85

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $105
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Starmer out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $120
User PnL: -$18

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.11
Potential profit: $108.11
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $24.36
Potential payout: $95.53
Potential profit: $71.17
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$25.64

Yes position

Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $46.25
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $37.08
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $61.92
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.91
Potential profit: $76.91
User PnL: -$65.33

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $50.69
Potential payout: $68.5
Potential profit: $17.81
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.65
Potential profit: $65.65
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.24
Potential profit: $60.24
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $34.25
Potential payout: $54.79
Potential profit: $20.55
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$5.75

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.3%
Current value: $12.05
Potential payout: $54.15
Potential profit: $42.1
Multiplier: 4.49x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $50.26
Potential payout: $51.28
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.27
Potential profit: $50.27
User PnL: -$23

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $12.24
Potential payout: $46.2
Potential profit: $33.95
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.94
Potential profit: $44.94
User PnL: -$40

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.35

Yes position

French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.72

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.9%
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $32.38

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39.2%
Multiplier: 2.55x
User PnL: $25.35

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.31

Yes position

Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.4

No position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $18.91

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.57

Yes position

Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.82

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.22

No position

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.79

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.54

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.07

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.38

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.42

Yes position

Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.41

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.63

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.57

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.45

Yes position

Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.37

Yes position

Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Yes 19.9% 151.08 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Yes 92% 43.48 shares
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 23% 137.91 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 73% 54.79 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Yes 97.2% 53.77 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Yes 93% 53.77 shares
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes 97.5% 51.28 shares
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Yes 24% 217.39 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 94% 64.13 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Yes 87% 67.45 shares
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 89% 22.72 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 83.2% 46.06 shares