No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $3.44K
- Potential payout
- $3.49K
- Potential profit
- $45.35
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $223.26
Polymarket Trader
IbnKhaldun
0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.18K
- Realized PnL
- $41.85K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $8.33
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.66
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $195.5
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $1.62K
- Potential payout
- $2.29K
- Potential profit
- $662.91
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $116.57
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- User PnL
- -$32.4
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Current value
- $568.9
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $818.66
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- -$5.45
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $8.06
- Potential payout
- $1.24K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$21.93
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$19
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $835.71
- Potential profit
- $835.71
- User PnL
- -$238
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $774.92
- Potential payout
- $806.36
- Potential profit
- $31.45
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $74.92
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $700
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $100
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $684.84
- Potential profit
- $684.84
- User PnL
- -$264.5
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $620
- Potential profit
- $620
- User PnL
- -$61.2
Yes position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $54.36
- Potential payout
- $603.96
- Potential profit
- $549.6
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$45.64
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $550.96
- Potential payout
- $567.41
- Potential profit
- $16.45
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $76.96
Yes position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $495.25
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$45.25
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $106
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $294
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$118
Yes position
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $64.5
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $235.49
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $29.07
- Potential payout
- $289.28
- Potential profit
- $260.21
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$53.93
Yes position
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $247.88
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $207.74
- Potential profit
- $205.04
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$7.3
Yes position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $182.99
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$54
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $25.59
- Potential payout
- $189.58
- Potential profit
- $163.99
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$34.41
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.73K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.34K
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.24K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95K
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $830.37
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $799.39
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $769.44
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $673
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.95
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $638.86
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $603.6
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585.88
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $568.86
Yes position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?
Ends Oct 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $562.63
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $473.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 56% 64.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 43% 700 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 86.8% 806.36 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 33% 1,515.15 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 17.2% 200 shares
- Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 0.3% 3,333.33 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 90% 7.53 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?Yes 31.9% 65.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 21.3% 470.33 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 11.6% 349.09 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 2.5% 8,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 32.7% 30.59 shares