Polymarket Trader

poutine

0xa4caa5f567b759fe60380830bb44bf9fb30bb890

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.25K
Realized PnL: $2.5K
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.57K
Potential profit: $2.57K
User PnL: -$500

No position

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.67K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $112.95
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $126.24

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $799.37
Potential profit: $799.37
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $683.68
Potential profit: $683.68
User PnL: -$191.43

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $673.62
Potential profit: $673.62
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $631.58
Potential profit: $631.58
User PnL: -$120

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $586.76
Potential profit: $586.76
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $502.5
Potential profit: $502.5
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $21.98
Potential payout: $488.5
Potential profit: $466.51
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$56.97

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $480.51
Potential profit: $480.51
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $466.95
Potential profit: $466.95
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $8.98
Potential payout: $353.45
Potential profit: $344.47
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$91.02

No position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.58
Potential profit: $322.58
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $283.47
Potential profit: $283.47
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Obama endorse Mamdani?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $105.26
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $460.05

Yes position

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.16

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $212.5

No position

Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.97

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.7

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.67

No position

Zuckerberg divorce in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.55

Yes position

Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.28

No position

Sam Altman arrested before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.03

Yes position

Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Was Trump hacked?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 82% 1,328.78 shares
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 28.3% 353.45 shares
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Yes 16.2% 488.5 shares
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Yes 25% 799.37 shares
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

No 31% 322.58 shares
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Yes 19% 631.58 shares
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Yes 1.7% 1,176.47 shares
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

No 1.2% 1,666.67 shares
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?

Yes 4% 502.5 shares
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Yes 22.2% 1,111.11 shares
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

No 28% 683.68 shares
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?

Yes 4.3% 466.95 shares