No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
0xa4d6...eef9
0xa4d616ab9129b052d6725f1007499cf5e6f5eef9
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $441.3
- Realized PnL
- $311.99
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$18.7
No position
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $672.47
- Potential profit
- $672.47
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $561.13
- Potential profit
- $561.13
- User PnL
- -$59
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $528.62
- Potential profit
- $528.62
- User PnL
- -$4.76
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $506.19
- Potential profit
- $506.19
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $361.97
- Potential profit
- $361.97
- User PnL
- -$25.34
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $293.1
- Potential profit
- $293.1
- User PnL
- -$14.64
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $258.41
- Potential profit
- $258.41
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $214.74
- Potential profit
- $214.74
- User PnL
- -$19.33
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $208.93
- Potential profit
- $208.93
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $180.43
- Potential payout
- $180.43
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $180.43
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $174.31
- Potential profit
- $174.31
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $164.07
- Potential profit
- $164.07
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $150.11
- Potential payout
- $150.11
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $32.57
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $147.46
- Potential profit
- $147.46
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $141.18
- Potential profit
- $141.18
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $137.12
- Potential profit
- $137.12
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130.87
- Potential profit
- $130.87
- User PnL
- -$17.19
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130.34
- Potential profit
- $130.34
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $110.76
- Potential payout
- $110.76
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $94.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Sean Strickland position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.6
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.11
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.3
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.94
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.37
Yes position
James Comey arrested by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.34
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.29
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.65
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.32
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $6.15
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.25
Yes position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.31
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.05
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.29
No position
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
James Comey arrested by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 9.9% 70.3 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 6.6% 186.21 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 9% 4.49 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Yes 6.4% 1.63 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes 3.1% 36.77 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 11% 6.42 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Yes 9% 37.33 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 36% 0.01 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No 17.8% 19.93 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes 5.9% 147.46 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 19% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 11% 62.85 shares