Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $300
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $19.7K
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$700
Polymarket Trader
qwerty12345678901
0xa50314168a90c6efd197ca6a8c3b3741544c2342
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $300
- Realized PnL
- $35.01K
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$1.4K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.99K
- Potential profit
- $8.99K
- User PnL
- -$7.35K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.18K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.45K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.04K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $920
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $712.35
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $675
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $660.08
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $545
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $487.5
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.99
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421.3
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.82
No position
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $256.04
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.01
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.72
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$52.64
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$140.8
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$202.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 99.9% 3,775.27 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 88% 10.23 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 86% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 88% 6,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 93% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 93% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 71.9% 5,136.9 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 80% 4,800 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 66% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 79% 16,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 83% 7,914.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 93% 6,000 shares