N
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $385.14
- Potential payout
- $524
- Potential profit
- $138.86
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $50.63
Polymarket Trader
ForMarketBeta
0xa619ccdc71bf2eef5399bb76cb182f27c1d71103
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.67K
- Realized PnL
- $75.58
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $137.88
- Potential payout
- $520.28
- Potential profit
- $382.41
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$44.73
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $301.73
- Potential payout
- $422
- Potential profit
- $120.27
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$10.04
Yes position
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $392.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $7.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $71.23
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $178.78
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$2.27
No position
2026 Balance of Power: Other
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $228.38
- Potential payout
- $230.11
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $7.65
- Potential payout
- $225
- Potential profit
- $217.35
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $217.34
- Potential payout
- $224.99
- Potential profit
- $7.65
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $182
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $121.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $78.1
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $84.73
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $65.26
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $132.5
- Potential payout
- $135
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $54.38
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $70.63
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $2.88
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $97.33
- Potential payout
- $109.98
- Potential profit
- $12.65
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$4.86
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $44
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $56
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $56
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $44
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.4%
- Current value
- $61.35
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $38.65
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.65
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.7%
- Current value
- $38.65
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $61.34
- Multiplier
- 2.59x
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $11.5
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $88.49
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $7.6
No position
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $20.34
- Potential payout
- $20.48
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $16.53
- Potential payout
- $19.34
- Potential profit
- $2.8
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $3.33
- Potential payout
- $5.01
- Potential profit
- $1.68
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.26
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $9.4
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $8.03
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.24
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $4.27
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $3.91
No position
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $3.08
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.05
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.1%
- Multiplier
- 4.15x
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes 85% 50.33 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 69% 62 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 91.1% 9.99 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 30% 12.4 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 30.3% 38 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 31% 152 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 33.6% 41.1 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 41.4% 82.18 shares
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 66% 17.11 shares
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 66% 9.97 shares
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 47% 33 shares
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 47% 37 shares