No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $17.52K
- Potential payout
- $17.57K
- Potential profit
- $43.92
- User PnL
- $2.27K
Polymarket Trader
Elias.Thornwell
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $128.61K
- Realized PnL
- $31.3K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Current value
- $9.39K
- Potential payout
- $10.09K
- Potential profit
- $701.59
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $39.99
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $9.27K
- Potential payout
- $9.9K
- Potential profit
- $628.56
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $122.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $8.28K
- Potential payout
- $8.3K
- Potential profit
- $20.74
- User PnL
- $58.53
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $7.74K
- Potential payout
- $8.06K
- Potential profit
- $326.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $307.32
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $6.04K
- Potential payout
- $6.41K
- Potential profit
- $375.2
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $367.75
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $5.79K
- Potential payout
- $5.84K
- Potential profit
- $43.78
- User PnL
- $410.06
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $5.14K
- Potential payout
- $5.16K
- Potential profit
- $18.06
- User PnL
- $185.86
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5.09K
- Potential payout
- $5.1K
- Potential profit
- $7.65
- User PnL
- $470.29
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $4.41K
- Potential payout
- $5.04K
- Potential profit
- $629.4
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $747.72
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $39.32
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $4.59K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$39.02
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $4.58K
- Potential payout
- $4.6K
- Potential profit
- $23.01
- User PnL
- $116.95
Yes position
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.52K
- Potential profit
- $4.52K
- User PnL
- -$677.89
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.9%
- Current value
- $3.54K
- Potential payout
- $4.32K
- Potential profit
- $782.07
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $1.55K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $3.27K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $894.56
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$132.59
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.77K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $395.23
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $399.05
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $3.77K
- Potential payout
- $4.08K
- Potential profit
- $305.64
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $33.12
Yes position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.06K
- Potential profit
- $4.06K
- User PnL
- -$685.74
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $3.49K
- Potential payout
- $3.74K
- Potential profit
- $252.44
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $27.74
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.63K
- Potential profit
- $3.63K
- User PnL
- -$735.74
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $3.57K
- Potential payout
- $3.59K
- Potential profit
- $19.75
- User PnL
- $166
Yes position
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $26.91
- Potential payout
- $3.59K
- Potential profit
- $3.56K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$27.33
Yes position
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $30.17
- Potential payout
- $3.55K
- Potential profit
- $3.52K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.14
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $3.04K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $357.16
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $75.68
Yes position
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.28K
- Potential profit
- $3.28K
- User PnL
- -$6.55
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $3.24K
- Potential payout
- $3.26K
- Potential profit
- $14.65
- User PnL
- $148.88
Yes position
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $3.25K
- User PnL
- -$12.76
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $226.3
- Potential payout
- $3.17K
- Potential profit
- $2.94K
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- $89.4
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $3.1K
- User PnL
- -$9.31
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $35.56
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $3.06K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Yes position
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $3.09K
- User PnL
- -$245.51
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $3.06K
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $23.15
- User PnL
- $162.88
No position
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $3.02K
- Potential payout
- $3.04K
- Potential profit
- $22.81
- User PnL
- -$1.05
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.72K
- Potential payout
- $3.01K
- Potential profit
- $285.56
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $256.11
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$2.43K
Yes position
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- User PnL
- -$28.13
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.97K
- Potential profit
- $2.97K
- User PnL
- -$170.61
Yes position
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94K
- Potential profit
- $2.94K
- User PnL
- -$19.41
Yes position
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $21.94
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.9K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$6.65
Yes position
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.92K
- User PnL
- -$208.91
Yes position
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $36.5
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.09
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $50.87
- Potential payout
- $2.91K
- Potential profit
- $2.86K
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- $5.18
Yes position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.9K
- User PnL
- -$67.63
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $2.82K
- Potential payout
- $2.86K
- Potential profit
- $41.51
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $380.05
Yes position
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.84K
- Potential profit
- $2.84K
- User PnL
- -$20.71
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $2.81K
- Potential payout
- $2.84K
- Potential profit
- $21.27
- User PnL
- $626.05
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.81K
- Potential profit
- $2.81K
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- User PnL
- -$1.71K
No position
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $2.77K
- Potential payout
- $2.78K
- Potential profit
- $4.16
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.77K
- Potential profit
- $2.77K
- User PnL
- -$8.77
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
Yes position
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $988.34
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $898.3
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $834.55
Yes position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $785.96
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $782.63
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- $752.3
Yes position
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $727.09
Yes position
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $654.58
Yes position
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $650.06
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.18
Yes position
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $640.41
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $610.31
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $600.74
Yes position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- $588.66
Yes position
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $575.72
Yes position
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $563.27
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $515.92
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $504.55
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $482.11
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $481.39
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $475.97
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $442.22
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $440.84
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $436.37
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $393.37
No position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $349.11
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $347.9
Yes position
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $336.56
Yes position
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $331.28
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.19
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.75
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $306.75
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $306.42
Yes position
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $299.42
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.54
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $286.6
Yes position
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $274.06
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.37
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271.11
No position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $262.59
Yes position
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $261.45
Yes position
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $261.06
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.49
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes 3.4% 30.88 shares
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?Yes 15% 12.1 shares
- Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 2.5% 42 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?No 95% 5 shares
- Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 37% 63.96 shares
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?Yes 41.9% 5 shares
- Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes 12% 8.75 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?No 15% 30.76 shares
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?No 99.8% 6.47 shares
- Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Yes 85% 55.59 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in June 2026?No 99.9% 73.04 shares
- Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?No 46% 5 shares