No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $7.24K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $760
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $480.02
Polymarket Trader
qwer1413
0xa74b4d6bc17e266b92c05c6009c4e790e2ce31b1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $19.72K
- Realized PnL
- $4.02K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$2.79K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $4.36K
- Potential payout
- $4.6K
- Potential profit
- $241.5
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $227.53
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $205.39
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $109.33
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $1.49K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $18.8
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $50.05
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.46K
- Potential payout
- $1.46K
- Potential profit
- $3.65
- User PnL
- $75.74
No position
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.1%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $129.35
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $130.65
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$664.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$804.99
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $988.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $11.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $408.49
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $512.67
- Potential profit
- $512.67
- User PnL
- -$445.47
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $498.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- User PnL
- $29.75
Yes position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$470
No position
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.2%
- Current value
- $324.39
- Potential payout
- $352.02
- Potential profit
- $27.63
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $44.53
Yes position
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.9%
- Current value
- $235.44
- Potential payout
- $306.16
- Potential profit
- $70.72
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$27.86
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $6.1
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $143.98
- Potential payout
- $159.09
- Potential profit
- $15.11
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $19.89
No position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $153.76
- Potential payout
- $155
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- User PnL
- $2.63
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $136.6
- Potential profit
- $136.6
- User PnL
- -$105.18
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $110.67
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $9.56
No position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $89.9
- Potential profit
- $89.36
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $27.01
- Potential payout
- $38.31
- Potential profit
- $11.3
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $8.91
- Potential payout
- $9.96
- Potential profit
- $1.05
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.72
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.79
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.5
No position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.99
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.62
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $109.88
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.51
No position
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.56
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.14
No position
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65
No position
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
Yes position
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.51
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.59
No position
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.46
Yes position
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.39
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.54
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 58% 248.31 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 18% 1,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 59% 1,000 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?No 95.9% 218.56 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 99.7% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 76% 85.71 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 86% 1,000 shares
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?No 85.6% 316.44 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 93% 500 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 98.6% 57.55 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?No 99.5% 20.3 shares
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No 91.5% 239.01 shares