No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.79K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- User PnL
- -$3.14K
Polymarket Trader
peggysage
@MichaelaShepard
0xa7cfafa0db244f760436fcf83c8b1eb98904ba10
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.4K
- Realized PnL
- $24.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $2.95K
- Potential payout
- $3.49K
- Potential profit
- $541.52
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$192.15
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $398.75
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 6.27x
- User PnL
- -$126.25
Yes position
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $14.94
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $3.45
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $31.23
- Potential payout
- $31.31
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $1.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.58K
No position
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.32K
Yes position
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.35K
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.52K
No position
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $713.37
No position
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710.52
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $621.21
No position
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $534.49
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $495.95
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $387.11
Yes position
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.54
No position
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $378.11
No position
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.36
No position
Interstellar object confirmed aliens?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.39
Yes position
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $349.68
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.84
No position
NATO article 5 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $325
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $312.56
No position
Pepe ETF in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.4
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.11
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.19
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.17
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.55
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 90% 3,493.7 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 83% 3,788.44 shares
- Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 0.8% 21,000 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 96.4% 6,003.33 shares
- Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?No 86.4% 55 shares
- Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?No 98% 130 shares
- Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?No 98% 150 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 96.6% 5,758.39 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 94% 3,702.42 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 86% 1,055.97 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No 98.1% 600 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 86% 1,000 shares