Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $18.63
- Potential payout
- $196.06
- Potential profit
- $177.43
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$23.93
Polymarket Trader
SyntheticDemon
0xa8231f2aa645e290a342e9fe6e80e9b4a6481af5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $108.55
- Realized PnL
- $140.04
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.05
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$86.05
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $39.53
- Potential payout
- $93
- Potential profit
- $53.48
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$11.63
No position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.08
- Potential profit
- $53.08
- User PnL
- -$36.72
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $42.75
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Yes position
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $3.71
- Potential payout
- $48.81
- Potential profit
- $45.1
- Multiplier
- 13.16x
- User PnL
- -$9.47
Yes position
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.1%
- Current value
- $7.01
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $17.99
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $20.57
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $1.43
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $3.85
Yes position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.03
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$12.08
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.76
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.69
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.07
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.24
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.46
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.37
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.28
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.13
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.32
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.43
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.7
Yes position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.45
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Yes position
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- -$8.61
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.98
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- -$34.8
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$63
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$208
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 54% 46 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 99.9% 10 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 97.3% 15 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 91.8% 10 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 61% 15 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 87% 15 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 81.2% 3.9 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 38% 100 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.4% 500 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 0.6% 45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 56% 47 shares
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?Yes 17.8% 25 shares