No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $749.02
- Potential payout
- $930.45
- Potential profit
- $181.44
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $99.01
Polymarket Trader
Lapinot
0xa834aeb9e5e55f4924e8137b09996404bd3071ae
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.74K
- Realized PnL
- $6.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $918.65
- Potential payout
- $926.06
- Potential profit
- $7.41
- User PnL
- $213.7
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $837.89
- Potential profit
- $837.89
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $708.17
- Potential payout
- $747.01
- Potential profit
- $38.84
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $177.94
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $606.43
- Potential payout
- $717.66
- Potential profit
- $111.24
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $106.43
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $58.16
- Potential payout
- $612.24
- Potential profit
- $554.08
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$241.84
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $3.92
- Potential payout
- $523.08
- Potential profit
- $519.15
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$30.08
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $319.48
- Potential payout
- $369.34
- Potential profit
- $49.86
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $19.48
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $308.8
- Potential payout
- $341.22
- Potential profit
- $32.42
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $32.57
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $301.61
- Potential payout
- $322.58
- Potential profit
- $20.97
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.61
No position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $316
- Potential profit
- $316
- User PnL
- -$80.19
Yes position
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $285.16
- Potential profit
- $285.16
- User PnL
- -$168.82
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $271.04
- Potential payout
- $272.81
- Potential profit
- $1.77
- User PnL
- $35.84
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $260.97
- Potential profit
- $260.97
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $215.15
- Potential payout
- $227.79
- Potential profit
- $12.64
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $15.15
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $191.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $8.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.43
- Potential profit
- $199.43
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $195.12
- Potential profit
- $194.44
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$79.32
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $175.61
- Potential profit
- $175.61
- User PnL
- -$149.09
Camilo Ugo Carabelli position
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$100
Casper Ruud position
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $123.46
- Potential profit
- $123.46
- User PnL
- -$100
Rafael Jodar position
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $119.4
- Potential profit
- $119.4
- User PnL
- -$80
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$69.54
No position
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $85.3
- Potential payout
- $85.99
- Potential profit
- $0.69
- User PnL
- $5.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $959.15
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $787.55
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Saturday?
Ends Jun 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $522
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?
Ends Jun 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.19
Yes position
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?
Ends Dec 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $319.64
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295.28
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.1
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.86
No position
Coinbase top 20 app December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.66
Yes position
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.4
Yes position
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.49
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $172.73
Down position
Bitcoin up in Q1 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.29
No position
1,000+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.23
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.08
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.58
Lorenzo Musetti position
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.41
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.37
No position
1,200+ Measles cases in U.S. before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.87
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.85
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.22
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.27
Yes position
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.86
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.02
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 87.8% 227.79 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 67% 223.88 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 6.5% 523.08 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 93% 539.47 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 83% 120.48 shares
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 81.2% 369.34 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 76% 526.32 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 76% 13.16 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 76% 78.95 shares
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No 93% 322.58 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No 69.7% 717.66 shares
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 84% 180 shares