0xa8485E499d597746088ed85f15f4693FB1C78A1F-1771191606733

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $482.5
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$66.97

Yes position

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $59.76
Potential payout: $390.58
Potential profit: $330.82
Multiplier: 6.54x
User PnL: $51.31

No position

Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $280.33
Potential payout: $339.79
Potential profit: $59.46
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $55.5

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $57.71
Potential payout: $329.76
Potential profit: $272.05
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$76.2

Yes position

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $27
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $273
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$56.44

Yes position

Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $23.46
Potential payout: $276
Potential profit: $252.54
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$15.18

Yes position

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $20.95
Potential payout: $270.32
Potential profit: $249.37
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: $9.4

Yes position

Weed rescheduled by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.77
Potential payout: $263.9
Potential profit: $261.13
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$49.22

Yes position

Will the Tampa Bay Rays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Ends Sep 28, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $186.3
Potential payout: $227.2
Potential profit: $40.9
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $4.54

Yes position

Will the Atlanta Braves clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Ends Sep 28, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $212.43
Potential payout: $227.2
Potential profit: $14.77
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $17.04

Yes position

Will the New York Yankees clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Ends Sep 28, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $212.43
Potential payout: $227.2
Potential profit: $14.77
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $21.58

No position

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $213
Potential payout: $220.04
Potential profit: $7.04
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $32.57

Yes position

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $19.35
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $195.65
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$22.38

Yes position

Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $164.11
Potential payout: $214.52
Potential profit: $50.41
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $16.09

Yes position

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $95
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $105
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $66
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $134
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $187
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$14.48

No position

Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

Ends Dec 19, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $81
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $119
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $147
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $53
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$7

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $152.68
Potential payout: $197
Potential profit: $44.32
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $26.6

No position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $177.75
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $2.25
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $48.72
Potential payout: $167.99
Potential profit: $119.27
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $19.78

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.12

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.75

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.38

No position

Will Drake feature Travis Scott on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.96

No position

Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.8

No position

Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.05

Yes position

Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.35

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.29

No position

Will Drake feature Lil Yachty on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.5

No position

Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.18

Yes position

Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

No position

Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.65

No position

Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National Intelligence?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.34

Yes position

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.8

No position

Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.7

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

Implied probability: 49%
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.6

No position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 10?