Y
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $376.94
- Potential profit
- $376.94
- User PnL
- -$41.92
Polymarket Trader
0xa8a0...d5a0
0xa8a0f8fb7a3ca4ef45d9c901a8cf343ba6e0d5a0
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $456.48
- Realized PnL
- $178.41
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $201.36
- Potential profit
- $201.36
- User PnL
- -$4.43
Y
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $141.03
- Potential profit
- $141.03
- User PnL
- -$8.65
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $82.54
- Potential payout
- $134.22
- Potential profit
- $51.67
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $10.19
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.7
- Potential profit
- $133.7
- User PnL
- -$9.76
No position
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $56.81
- Potential payout
- $109.25
- Potential profit
- $52.44
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $56.81
- Potential payout
- $107.18
- Potential profit
- $50.37
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $5.81
No position
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $56.55
- Potential payout
- $76.42
- Potential profit
- $19.87
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $50.28
- Potential payout
- $74.49
- Potential profit
- $24.21
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $13.67
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $67.94
- Potential profit
- $67.94
- User PnL
- -$3.02
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.96
- Potential profit
- $59.96
- User PnL
- -$9.77
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $31.65
- Potential payout
- $57.03
- Potential profit
- $25.38
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $53.34
- Potential profit
- $52.67
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $5.54
- Potential payout
- $44.3
- Potential profit
- $38.76
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.32
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Current value
- $4.68
- Potential payout
- $41.42
- Potential profit
- $36.74
- Multiplier
- 8.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$1.92
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $38.2
- Potential profit
- $37.61
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $32.3
- Potential payout
- $37.34
- Potential profit
- $5.04
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $3.17
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $9.92
- Potential payout
- $35.43
- Potential profit
- $25.51
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$2.67
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $22.36
- Potential payout
- $31.06
- Potential profit
- $8.7
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Current value
- $26.92
- Potential payout
- $28.88
- Potential profit
- $1.96
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $7.28
No position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.39
- Potential profit
- $26.39
- User PnL
- -$17.53
Y
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.21
- Potential payout
- $22.88
- Potential profit
- $22.67
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$10.77
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.1%
- Current value
- $18.66
- Potential payout
- $20.72
- Potential profit
- $2.06
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.81
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.63
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.9
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.4
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.24
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.53
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.84
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.52
Y
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.86
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.62
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
N
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.73
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.71
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.48
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.22
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes 40% 5.12 shares
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes 38% 6.5 shares
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No 60% 61.94 shares
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes 40% 6.5 shares
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes 47% 5.13 shares
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes 29% 11.48 shares
- Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?No 78% 12.91 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 37% 7.35 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 75% 10.47 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 26% 5.11 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 37% 9.3 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 37% 5.51 shares