Polymarket Trader

anciano

0xa8b7f8b34185e9cc62c471e1d353595148a3ee3c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $41.55K
Realized PnL: $105.8K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $13.81K
Potential payout: $15.61K
Potential profit: $1.79K
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $2.9K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $3.09K
Potential payout: $7.26K
Potential profit: $4.17K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$286.27

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $5.07K
Potential payout: $6.3K
Potential profit: $1.23K
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$221.29

No position

Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $5.69K
Potential payout: $5.84K
Potential profit: $154.88
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $84.27

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $2.16K
Potential payout: $5.34K
Potential profit: $3.18K
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $13.07

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $428.79
Potential payout: $3.9K
Potential profit: $3.47K
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$286.07

No position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $1.54K
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$8.74

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $24.05
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.68K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$10.11

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $12.45
Potential payout: $3.11K
Potential profit: $3.1K
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$265.43

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $2.92K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$202.36

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $21.08
Potential payout: $2.48K
Potential profit: $2.46K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$14.24

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $279.13
Potential payout: $2.43K
Potential profit: $2.15K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$267.27

Yes position

Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.95K
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $357.9
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$2.36

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $31.05
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.27K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $50.8
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.9%
Current value: $1.53K
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $387.05
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $268.68

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $1.41K
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $483.21
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$318.48

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $516.25
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.23K
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$40.19

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.59K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$2.19

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $17.54
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.51K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$5.12

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $54.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $11.9
User PnL: -$1.4

No position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $328.99
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $826.32
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $528.31
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $8.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on February 1, 2023?

Ends Feb 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1298627.56x
User PnL: $22.97K

Yes position

Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84K

Republican position

Senate: Will a Democrat (Masto) or Republican (Laxalt) win in Nevada?

Ends Nov 15, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 712304.49x
User PnL: $6.57K

No position

Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2022 Alaska Senate election?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1041933.69x
User PnL: $6.05K

No position

Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress?

Ends Jan 4, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 536958.47x
User PnL: $5.68K

Democratic position

Which party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 793924.87x
User PnL: $4.61K

DRX position

Will DRX or T1 win the 2022 League of Legends World Championship?

Ends Nov 6, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61K

Yes position

Trump wins every swing state?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.58K

Yes position

Will the Margin of Victory in the Georgia runoff be 5.0% or greater?

Ends Dec 6, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 9872.17x
User PnL: $3.54K

No position

Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.22K

Yes position

Will there be a new (1,073rd) NFL Scorigami in September 2022?

Ends Sep 30, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 695945.51x
User PnL: $2.98K

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.98K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.97K

Titans position

NFL Thursday: Titans vs. Packers

Ends Nov 17, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.73K

No position

Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.6K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?

Ends Jan 6, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1526430.04x
User PnL: $2.46K

Democrat position

Senate: Will a Democrat (Barnes) or Republican (Johnson) win in Wisconsin?

Ends Nov 15, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 45168.95x
User PnL: $2.43K

Yes position

[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.43K

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $2.39K

Yes position

Will Canada qualify from Group F?

Ends Dec 6, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 980836.18x
User PnL: $2.24K

Yes position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.21K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 34.4% 710.35 shares
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 93% 40 shares
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 23% 15.55 shares
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 53% 62.84 shares
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 53% 350.11 shares
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 30.3% 76.94 shares
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Yes 8% 500 shares
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Yes 7% 507.36 shares
Will Iran be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

No 90% 55 shares
Will Iran be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

No 89% 12 shares
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 91% 500 shares
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 92% 95.24 shares