Polymarket Trader

Tenebrus7

@Tenebrus87

0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $94.05K
Realized PnL: $341.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.7K
Potential payout: $200K
Potential profit: $198.3K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $33.6

Yes position

Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $450
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $99.55K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$850

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $2.83K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $47.18K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$273.35

Yes position

Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $15.58
Potential payout: $31.15K
Potential profit: $31.14K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$928.42

Yes position

Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $15.58
Potential payout: $31.15K
Potential profit: $31.14K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$928.42

Yes position

Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $15.58
Potential payout: $31.15K
Potential profit: $31.14K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$928.42

Yes position

Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $15.58
Potential payout: $31.15K
Potential profit: $31.14K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$928.42

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $2K
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $28.01K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$165

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $2.5K
Potential payout: $18.16K
Potential profit: $15.67K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $9.08

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $14.66K
Potential payout: $15.85K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $379.94

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $9.53K
Potential payout: $10.65K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $8.57K

Yes position

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $10.37K
Potential profit: $9.28K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $774.34

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $6.11K
Potential payout: $10.09K
Potential profit: $3.99K
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$146.99

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $8.75K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$49.99

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $9.11K
Potential payout: $9.85K
Potential profit: $738.86
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $749.4

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $674.66
Potential payout: $8.33K
Potential profit: $7.65K
Multiplier: 12.35x
User PnL: -$538.78

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $7.89K
Potential payout: $8K
Potential profit: $108
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $41.51

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $667.46
Potential payout: $7.38K
Potential profit: $6.71K
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: $27.94

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $6.78K
Potential payout: $7.15K
Potential profit: $375.55
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $524.68

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.12K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $5.88K
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: -$289.75

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $6.41K
Potential payout: $6.45K
Potential profit: $48.41
User PnL: $400.09

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $801.87
Potential payout: $6.17K
Potential profit: $5.37K
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$638.76

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $5.28K
Potential payout: $5.94K
Potential profit: $652.88
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $202.14

No position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $5.66K
Potential payout: $5.85K
Potential profit: $190.13
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $127.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $57.94K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.35K

Yes position

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.85K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.78K

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.11K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.55K

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.89K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.71K

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.07K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.32K

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16K

Yes position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.16K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.85K

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.77K

Yes position

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.34K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.3K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.16K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.03K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.8K

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.62K

No position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.16K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.04K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.97K

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.96K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 62.5% 6,292.96 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 10.5% 3,529.8 shares
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 10% 1,000 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 1% 97 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 1% 421 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 1.1% 622 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 1.1% 859.99 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Yes 87.3% 1,799.18 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 32.6% 75.22 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.8% 10,000 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 32.1% 66.91 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 7% 476.71 shares