Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.17K
- Potential profit
- $29.17K
- User PnL
- -$3K
Polymarket Trader
Thumos
@thumos2349
0xa8cb1c966c7975466f6e6bd8f6098e5ef0dfea19
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $14.23K
- Win rate
- 23.1%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.89K
- Potential profit
- $26.89K
- User PnL
- -$3K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.31K
- Potential profit
- $12.31K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.17K
- Potential profit
- $11.17K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.94K
- Potential profit
- $5.94K
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.81K
- Potential profit
- $4.81K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.55K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.67K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.06
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$255.01
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$463.87
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$471.75
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$527.15
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$727.27
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$769.75
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.23K
Yes position
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.83K
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.98K
Yes position
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.09K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 87% 10,885.29 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 86.4% 11,571.13 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 87.2% 11,470.65 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 85.9% 11,646.89 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 85.9% 11,638.46 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 89.3% 11,197.55 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 89.4% 11,186.98 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 89.3% 11,193.06 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 87.4% 11,447.24 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 86.3% 11,585.33 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 85.9% 20,315.85 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 88.3% 6,363.46 shares