No position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $927.92
- Potential profit
- $927.92
- User PnL
- -$701.23
Polymarket Trader
ReturnToMonke
0xa8d9f812a5808b9ad2b812622c43ea2d5a11d32a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $127.86
- Realized PnL
- $4.74K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $800
- User PnL
- -$544
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $607.69
- Potential profit
- $607.69
- User PnL
- -$425
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $475.32
- Potential profit
- $475.32
- User PnL
- -$218.65
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $470.36
- Potential profit
- $470.36
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $380
- Potential profit
- $380
- User PnL
- -$38
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $351.52
- Potential profit
- $351.52
- User PnL
- -$237.28
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$143.5
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $322.58
- Potential profit
- $322.58
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $316.98
- Potential profit
- $316.98
- User PnL
- -$168
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $313.86
- Potential profit
- $313.86
- User PnL
- -$150.6
No position
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $278.46
- Potential profit
- $278.46
- User PnL
- -$75
No position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $255.1
- Potential profit
- $255.1
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$210
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $232.56
- Potential profit
- $232.56
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (February 22)
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $213.14
- Potential profit
- $213.14
- User PnL
- -$134.13
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $197.01
- Potential profit
- $197.01
- User PnL
- -$73.31
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $182.02
- Potential profit
- $182.02
- User PnL
- -$120.13
Yes position
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $180
- User PnL
- -$104.4
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.73
- Potential profit
- $158.73
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $135.67
- Potential profit
- $135.67
- User PnL
- -$38
Yes position
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $127.86
- Potential payout
- $128.24
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- User PnL
- $32.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.09
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $506.22
No position
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.28
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.6
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271.35
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.77
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.02
No position
Will Stephen Curry Return This Series?
Ends May 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.89
Yes position
Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.07
Yes position
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.02
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.61
No position
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147
No position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.98
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.75
No position
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.36
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.29
No position
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.86
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.5
No position
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.13
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96
Yes position
Will Kanye have no token before April
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.2
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.05
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?Yes 74.6% 128.24 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes 16% 605.05 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes 17% 605.06 shares
- Will France win on 2026-07-14?Yes 36.2% 82.76 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 0.5% 1,363 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 66% 182.02 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 14.1% 476.72 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 99.8% 66.72 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 9.9% 886.28 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 53% 316.98 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 70% 142.86 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 63% 158.73 shares